Sunday, February 06, 2005
We are NOT the cause of global warming
After I read Professor Ward Seattle PI article:
"P-I Focus: Global warming is written in stoneWill we, and our leaders, heed the warning of prehistory?"
By PETER WARD PROFESSOR
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/210441_focus06.html
I thought it was interesting that he opened his article about a writer who wrote about Stalin.
"I remember a memorable passage in which Solzhenitsyn accurately noted that the vast majority of scientists
in Russia at that time were paleontologist." It is too bad he did not learn the lessons of those paleontologists.
I have to respond to this with my own analysis. First of all, I am not a professor but I did work at Fleet Numerical
Oceanography Center Monterey, CA for 3 years in the late 80's developing the computer models being used today.
I worked with the programmers on how the model worked, what happens to it when certain variables were used
and why we used the "100 years database" sparingly.
So let us get to the FACTS that everyone agrees too:
1.) There would be no life on Earth without "global warming".
Life does not do well at -275 degrees Kelvin. (the temperature in the shade on the Moon)
2.) Carbon Dioxide is one of the predominant gases in our atmosphere, always has been.
Humans are not the only source of this gas and can not be held responsible for it being produced.
3.) The computer models are based on 70 years of "accurate data". The reason is simple. It was not until WWII
that standardization of measurement equipment was used world wide. While weather forecasting goes back
hundreds of years, most people relied on the equipment used in their local area. With no records for calibration of
equipment, just how accurate the data is not known.
4.) Celsius vs. Fahrenheit, each system has it advantages and disadvantages.
Celsius is used in most of the world today, but is often less accurate since one degree is a larger
change in the Celsius system.
5.) None of the current models take in to account Solar activity and/or orbital changes.
( if you think Solar flares do not effect the planet, one was capable of taking out a satellite in orbit in 2003.)
http://www.space.com/news/kodama_down_031029.html
6.) There have been at least 5 separate ICE AGES according to the geological record, the last just over 10,000 years ago.
So Professor Ward, as you are sitting at your desk at UW today, ponder this fact:
10,00 years ago your office was under 300 feet of ice.
I am fairly certain that Humans and Fossil Fuels had nothing to do with that ice receding from this area of the world.
Comments:
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I will preface this by saying that I am not a scientist. However, there seems to be a majority of those who are who believe global warming is a problem and we are the cause of it.
I personally don't know, but I feel there is probably something to it. If there is absolutely nothing to it, what is the motivation behind their claims? Why did this ever come up at all? The point I am making here is that I am neither "for" nor "against" global warming. It's just not that kind of an issue so I have a fairly open mind. Now let's have a look at your "FACTS" that everyone agrees to:
1. You seem to be comparing the earth to the moon which has no atmosphere and no plant or animal life. Apples and oranges if you will. Are you saying that the earth should just keep getting warmer and that's all right?
2. "Carbon dioxide is one of the predominant gases in our atmosphere, always has been" Well, not exactly. Here is a basic breakdown of our atmosphere's constitution: nitrogen- 78.08%, oxygen-20.95%, water-0-4%, argon-.93%, CO2-.036%. At less than half of one percent, "predominant" might be a minor exaggeration don't ya reckon?
3. What does the ability to forecast weather locally have to do with whether or not global warming does/doesn't exist or if it is our fault or not?
4. Situations which exist as fact are what they are regardless of the means with which they are measured by humans. (Celsius is just as accurate thanks to electronic equipment which posts results in decimal form.) What is the relevance of this point?
5. I don't have a staff to fact check this solar flare thing, but didn't the last bout of that end a few years ago? Will the earth cool off a little due to reduced reduced solar flare activity? I doubt it.
6. I believe the most popular theory concerning ice ages has more to do with the earth tilting on it's axis rather than the content of CO2 in the atmoshpere. You know they have found fossil remains of deciduous trees in Antarctica?
You can have your own opinion, but you can't have you own "FACTS". (JB)
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I personally don't know, but I feel there is probably something to it. If there is absolutely nothing to it, what is the motivation behind their claims? Why did this ever come up at all? The point I am making here is that I am neither "for" nor "against" global warming. It's just not that kind of an issue so I have a fairly open mind. Now let's have a look at your "FACTS" that everyone agrees to:
1. You seem to be comparing the earth to the moon which has no atmosphere and no plant or animal life. Apples and oranges if you will. Are you saying that the earth should just keep getting warmer and that's all right?
2. "Carbon dioxide is one of the predominant gases in our atmosphere, always has been" Well, not exactly. Here is a basic breakdown of our atmosphere's constitution: nitrogen- 78.08%, oxygen-20.95%, water-0-4%, argon-.93%, CO2-.036%. At less than half of one percent, "predominant" might be a minor exaggeration don't ya reckon?
3. What does the ability to forecast weather locally have to do with whether or not global warming does/doesn't exist or if it is our fault or not?
4. Situations which exist as fact are what they are regardless of the means with which they are measured by humans. (Celsius is just as accurate thanks to electronic equipment which posts results in decimal form.) What is the relevance of this point?
5. I don't have a staff to fact check this solar flare thing, but didn't the last bout of that end a few years ago? Will the earth cool off a little due to reduced reduced solar flare activity? I doubt it.
6. I believe the most popular theory concerning ice ages has more to do with the earth tilting on it's axis rather than the content of CO2 in the atmoshpere. You know they have found fossil remains of deciduous trees in Antarctica?
You can have your own opinion, but you can't have you own "FACTS". (JB)
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